Friday, December 30, 2011
Capital Markets Update
By Louis S. Barnes Friday, December 30, 2011
A New Year begins next week, and it is time for my annual dodge. Peter Drucker, one of the world's few worthwhile business theorists: "Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to have a good grasp of the present."
This year, no flinching from predicting. Why such foolish courage? In several econo-political arenas we have dithered and fiddled so long that things are going to happen, and all I have to do is guess what. In order from easiest to hardest….
Interest Rates. Nothing big. Maybe nothing at all. The bond market is behaving as though the Fed intends a 2.00% cap on 10-year T-notes. Why argue?
US Economy. As is. The fantastic stimulus in the pipeline should keep it afloat, but the housing drag will hold it low in the water. More people will find jobs, but paying less than the old ones. The primary risk: if the foreclosure engine resumes without an adequate mortgage supply, it will undercut home prices (again). All other risks to us are from overseas. Upside surprises will be limited to regions first-in to the housing bust, first to recover, my home state Colorado a fair bet. Don’t look for a general economic improvement, if only because fiscal austerity lies just over the horizon.
China. Got this one right last year, so double down. It had to fight inflation in 2011, and did, and is slowing as a result. Other than that, nobody knows what will happen there, not even China. Too big, and too preoccupied by power transfer under way. For the time being these leadership transfers are non-violent, but behind all the black suits, white shirts, and bland ties lies a contest that would impress Corleone and Capone.
Inflation. Just forget about it. Year after year after year people have worried about it, and it's not in the cards. Forces of deflation are still far too strong.
Europe. Toast. Said so last year, and nothing has changed. The ECB will prevent an immediate banking collapse, so timing will depend on Clinton's Law: "It's the economy, stupido." When austerity bites, economies shrink, tax revenue falls, and budgets get worse, then we'll see about political stability versus suicidal clinging to the euro.
That was the easy stuff. The Hard Three are related (ain't they all?).
1. Modern central banks date to Walter Bagehot's concept of "lender of last resort" in 1873. That entire project is on trial, doing well but not getting anywhere. Inventing non-inflationary cash with which to put down waves of global bank runs, cushioning but unable to stop an asset-value disaster, and creating a starvation-level credit supply. Bernanke has been inspired, now guiding Draghi at the ECB, but they cannot reach the root issues. Without a root-fix, the credit house of cards just gets bigger, more vulnerable to some ron-paul idiot tying the hands of one of the central banks.
2. The Fed and ECB in their desperation to prevent a replay of 1930-'32 are buying time not just for the financial system, but have become unwilling co-dependents of the local politicians who are wasting every second provided (UK excepted). I thought last year that the frustration and exhaustion of the American people would force a budget deal and a big one. Wrong. Both political parties are engaged in lies so big that they seem to believe themselves. Shrinking government and regulation will not balance our budget. Taxing rich people will not do it, either. The middle class has promised itself benefits that it cannot afford, and neither party is willing to say so. Yet, I cannot believe that the tombstone of the United States of America will say, "Liked Being Lied To."
3. Tuesday, November 6th. A bunch of Tea Party yahoos will be sent home, elected in frustration with the President, not to misbehave. Neither party will have a working majority in Congress. Just as well. Twelve-straight years of Presidential failure have consumed all margin of safety, and we will either fix our budget within the next Presidential term, or see "tombstone," above.
Maybe, just maybe, this mix will enable the next President to know what to do for us and to us: a stiff, bad-hair Michigander/Utahan Republican Governor of Massachusetts (wow) who, as he says, has signed both sides of paychecks.
2012 is make or break. Simple as that.
A New Year begins next week, and it is time for my annual dodge. Peter Drucker, one of the world's few worthwhile business theorists: "Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to have a good grasp of the present."
This year, no flinching from predicting. Why such foolish courage? In several econo-political arenas we have dithered and fiddled so long that things are going to happen, and all I have to do is guess what. In order from easiest to hardest….
Interest Rates. Nothing big. Maybe nothing at all. The bond market is behaving as though the Fed intends a 2.00% cap on 10-year T-notes. Why argue?
US Economy. As is. The fantastic stimulus in the pipeline should keep it afloat, but the housing drag will hold it low in the water. More people will find jobs, but paying less than the old ones. The primary risk: if the foreclosure engine resumes without an adequate mortgage supply, it will undercut home prices (again). All other risks to us are from overseas. Upside surprises will be limited to regions first-in to the housing bust, first to recover, my home state Colorado a fair bet. Don’t look for a general economic improvement, if only because fiscal austerity lies just over the horizon.
China. Got this one right last year, so double down. It had to fight inflation in 2011, and did, and is slowing as a result. Other than that, nobody knows what will happen there, not even China. Too big, and too preoccupied by power transfer under way. For the time being these leadership transfers are non-violent, but behind all the black suits, white shirts, and bland ties lies a contest that would impress Corleone and Capone.
Inflation. Just forget about it. Year after year after year people have worried about it, and it's not in the cards. Forces of deflation are still far too strong.
Europe. Toast. Said so last year, and nothing has changed. The ECB will prevent an immediate banking collapse, so timing will depend on Clinton's Law: "It's the economy, stupido." When austerity bites, economies shrink, tax revenue falls, and budgets get worse, then we'll see about political stability versus suicidal clinging to the euro.
That was the easy stuff. The Hard Three are related (ain't they all?).
1. Modern central banks date to Walter Bagehot's concept of "lender of last resort" in 1873. That entire project is on trial, doing well but not getting anywhere. Inventing non-inflationary cash with which to put down waves of global bank runs, cushioning but unable to stop an asset-value disaster, and creating a starvation-level credit supply. Bernanke has been inspired, now guiding Draghi at the ECB, but they cannot reach the root issues. Without a root-fix, the credit house of cards just gets bigger, more vulnerable to some ron-paul idiot tying the hands of one of the central banks.
2. The Fed and ECB in their desperation to prevent a replay of 1930-'32 are buying time not just for the financial system, but have become unwilling co-dependents of the local politicians who are wasting every second provided (UK excepted). I thought last year that the frustration and exhaustion of the American people would force a budget deal and a big one. Wrong. Both political parties are engaged in lies so big that they seem to believe themselves. Shrinking government and regulation will not balance our budget. Taxing rich people will not do it, either. The middle class has promised itself benefits that it cannot afford, and neither party is willing to say so. Yet, I cannot believe that the tombstone of the United States of America will say, "Liked Being Lied To."
3. Tuesday, November 6th. A bunch of Tea Party yahoos will be sent home, elected in frustration with the President, not to misbehave. Neither party will have a working majority in Congress. Just as well. Twelve-straight years of Presidential failure have consumed all margin of safety, and we will either fix our budget within the next Presidential term, or see "tombstone," above.
Maybe, just maybe, this mix will enable the next President to know what to do for us and to us: a stiff, bad-hair Michigander/Utahan Republican Governor of Massachusetts (wow) who, as he says, has signed both sides of paychecks.
2012 is make or break. Simple as that.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Capital Markets Update
By Louis S. Barnes Friday, December 23,2011
"Marley was dead; to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that… Marley was dead as a doornail. Scrooge knew he was dead? Of course he did."
"Scrooge! A squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous, old sinner! Hard and sharp as flint, from which no steel had ever struck out generous fire; secret, and self-contained, and solitary as an oyster."
Very little real news this week, markets lurching to no account, trading so thin that the landing of a snowflake avalanched 300 points of Dow. Uphill.
The issue at hand: the debt and austerity trap. We must stop borrowing, but to stop we must cut spending or raise revenue or both. If we do that, and our economy or the ones over there or there slow down, then we will have less tax revenue and more need -- or wish -- for spending and borrowing.
How to escape? Devalue currency, stimulate exports. However, not everyone can be a net-exporter. There's no future in devaluing the dollar because we've been beaten to it by the Brits and the Euros (just begun), and China will soon switch from phony appreciation to very real devaluation, as Japan would do if it could figure out how.
On the Brit plan, devalue, cut spending, raise taxes, central bank prints, tolerate 5% inflation, force banks to lend and reform at the same time. Then kneel and pray.
On the Euro plan, pretend. The Japan plan:_____ .
China "Plan A": sell until customers can no longer buy, their wages undercut and debt too high, but by then China's domestic economy will be self-sustaining. Too bad: its customer-victims are tapped out a couple of decades too early. No "Plan B."
Caught in the ever-tighter mathematics of austerity and debt, what can we do to escape? That doesn't cost any money?
Ethics.
Simple as that. Start anywhere.
In boardrooms… if your CEO does not begin every day by considering the health of the markets and society in which the venture makes its money, and the contribution or damage the venture makes to the outer world, get another CEO. If commerce degenerates to cops and robbers, as it has, ultimately there will be too many rules and cops to conduct commerce.
The National Association of Realtors announced this week that it had over-counted sales of homes by 650,000-800,000 in each of the last four years. NAR, the voice of a million mostly hard-working brokers, which claims also to speak for homeowners, did not care enough to get it right. Or to say that it was guessing. Shame on you. Booooo.
New Fed rules require an independent committee of directors of large banks to be responsible for risk management. Wow. Directors to know what management is doing. Small banks, too, maybe? Might businesses other than banks take hint and heart?
We who feel disenfranchised, wondering if our silent Congressmen and Senators are still alive… we wish the spirit of Dickens gives them courage to speak blunt truth.
If you inhabit a wing of either political party, acknowledge daily to yourself and out loud to friends: "I know that my wishes will never prevail on the other three-quarters of Americans. Further, demanding my ideal will not increase my chances of getting part of what I want, and instead will lessen my chances and hurt my country."
Democracy and citizenship are easy: majorities may not oppress minorities, nor minorities paralyze majorities. Nothing to it except thinking about it once in a while.
Do not engage with fairy tales. 99.9% of the web does not have the benefit of an editor. Do not believe as fact anything that you see, forward it, or say it until crosschecked and verified. Goes triple for the economic realm, on the web or off.
If you have not discovered that your cell phone disturbs others nearby, or makes you drive as though stoned and lobotomized, work on it.
One no-cash way out: Ethical behavior enhances civil society and its productivity.
Merry Christmas!!
"Marley was dead; to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that… Marley was dead as a doornail. Scrooge knew he was dead? Of course he did."
"Scrooge! A squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous, old sinner! Hard and sharp as flint, from which no steel had ever struck out generous fire; secret, and self-contained, and solitary as an oyster."
Very little real news this week, markets lurching to no account, trading so thin that the landing of a snowflake avalanched 300 points of Dow. Uphill.
The issue at hand: the debt and austerity trap. We must stop borrowing, but to stop we must cut spending or raise revenue or both. If we do that, and our economy or the ones over there or there slow down, then we will have less tax revenue and more need -- or wish -- for spending and borrowing.
How to escape? Devalue currency, stimulate exports. However, not everyone can be a net-exporter. There's no future in devaluing the dollar because we've been beaten to it by the Brits and the Euros (just begun), and China will soon switch from phony appreciation to very real devaluation, as Japan would do if it could figure out how.
On the Brit plan, devalue, cut spending, raise taxes, central bank prints, tolerate 5% inflation, force banks to lend and reform at the same time. Then kneel and pray.
On the Euro plan, pretend. The Japan plan:_____ .
China "Plan A": sell until customers can no longer buy, their wages undercut and debt too high, but by then China's domestic economy will be self-sustaining. Too bad: its customer-victims are tapped out a couple of decades too early. No "Plan B."
Caught in the ever-tighter mathematics of austerity and debt, what can we do to escape? That doesn't cost any money?
Ethics.
Simple as that. Start anywhere.
In boardrooms… if your CEO does not begin every day by considering the health of the markets and society in which the venture makes its money, and the contribution or damage the venture makes to the outer world, get another CEO. If commerce degenerates to cops and robbers, as it has, ultimately there will be too many rules and cops to conduct commerce.
The National Association of Realtors announced this week that it had over-counted sales of homes by 650,000-800,000 in each of the last four years. NAR, the voice of a million mostly hard-working brokers, which claims also to speak for homeowners, did not care enough to get it right. Or to say that it was guessing. Shame on you. Booooo.
New Fed rules require an independent committee of directors of large banks to be responsible for risk management. Wow. Directors to know what management is doing. Small banks, too, maybe? Might businesses other than banks take hint and heart?
We who feel disenfranchised, wondering if our silent Congressmen and Senators are still alive… we wish the spirit of Dickens gives them courage to speak blunt truth.
If you inhabit a wing of either political party, acknowledge daily to yourself and out loud to friends: "I know that my wishes will never prevail on the other three-quarters of Americans. Further, demanding my ideal will not increase my chances of getting part of what I want, and instead will lessen my chances and hurt my country."
Democracy and citizenship are easy: majorities may not oppress minorities, nor minorities paralyze majorities. Nothing to it except thinking about it once in a while.
Do not engage with fairy tales. 99.9% of the web does not have the benefit of an editor. Do not believe as fact anything that you see, forward it, or say it until crosschecked and verified. Goes triple for the economic realm, on the web or off.
If you have not discovered that your cell phone disturbs others nearby, or makes you drive as though stoned and lobotomized, work on it.
One no-cash way out: Ethical behavior enhances civil society and its productivity.
Merry Christmas!!
Friday, December 16, 2011
Capital Markets Update
By Lois S. Barnes Friday, December 16, 2011
Optimism about the US economy has actually crowded Europe off-screen from time to time this week.
The center of US happy-talk: an abrupt decline in new filings for unemployment insurance. Stuck near 400,000 each week for 18 months, last week’s figure dropped to 366,000. As in all things economic, changes in trend are more important than absolute numbers, and it will take a while to verify this one. If accurate and durable, fewer layoffs is a good thing, but it is not hiring. Might just be running out of people to lay off.
Optimists point for confirmation to the NFIB small business survey, whose overall index has risen four months running. However, it’s a hair weaker than a year ago and statistically unchanged since the post-pit summer of 2009. However, the employment sub-index is slightly in positive ground for the first time since 2007. Maybe it’s a turn, or maybe over-cut small biz has enough confidence in stability to staff an empty slot, but it’s no rocket. The sub-index of sales has weakened steadily since April.
One of the best overall indicators is Federal tax receipts, cutting through analytic fog and spin: Federal receipts last month were $13 billion ahead of last year. Ain’t nobody payin’ taxes on income they didn’t really get.
Inflation is a non-problem, CPI flat in November, and as the rest of the world slows, inflation is more likely to be a too-low problem than too high. Industrial production slipped .2% after a strong month. Wizards of forecasting think GDP will have grown 3.5% this month, and we’ll see. Feels more like a number than a sidewalk reality.
Europe. Mainstream media last week trumpeted Merkel’s great success in gaining agreement for pan-European fiscal enforcement, and pilloried David Cameron for his UK no-thanks. Now we know: bullied by Merkel in her pickelhaube and Kaiser Bill moustache, nasty little French poodle in her lap snapping at passersby, several of the others gave polite “Ja” without any agreement at all. European banks are imploding again. Desperate efforts at fiscal discipline to support sovereign bonds are undercutting economies and tax revenue, hurting European bonds by other means.
The fear-effect here: the Treasury this week auctioned masses of 10- and 30-year bonds, and bidders over-subscribed 3.5:1, two-thirds from overseas. The 10-year T-note today is 1.84%, last so low on October 1, unfortunately with no follow-through to mortgages stuck above 4.00%. That absence of mortgage buyers is yet another signal that financial markets here are still deeply impaired.
Lest European governments get all the credit for mangling the public interest, consider the newest adventure here, transcending dysfunction. The President took time out from his pre-campaign snit to demand an extension to the payroll tax cut, and even this free-spender insisted that new revenue would be found to “pay” for the cut. Predictably Republicans wanted to cut spending in alternate “payment.”
No serious person thinks the extension even if not paid for would do anything for the economy except to waste another couple of hundred billion bucks. However, the “pay for” mania no matter how done will convert the whole exercise into cutting a foot off of one end of a blanket and sewing it on the other end.
Except. None of the pay-fors propose replacing the revenue lost to Social Security, a high cost to pay for political posturing.
And except. I’m not sure that it will pass, but there has been bi-partisan support to pay for part of the payroll cut with a Fannie-Freddie mortgage surcharge, adding a tax on the weakest component of the US economy in the form of higher rates. Meanwhile, of course, the Fed’s “Twist” is trying to push down mortgage rates, and at any crack in economic optimism the Fed will deploy QE3 focused on mortgages.
Few people expect much from government, now, except two minority parties each content in its corner to glare at the other. Finding agreement only in the idiocy of a mortgage surcharge transcends black comedy. If we get some action out of the Ghost of Christmas Present this year, I hope it’s to awaken and embolden the political center.
Maybe, maybe… fingers crossed.
Optimism about the US economy has actually crowded Europe off-screen from time to time this week.
The center of US happy-talk: an abrupt decline in new filings for unemployment insurance. Stuck near 400,000 each week for 18 months, last week’s figure dropped to 366,000. As in all things economic, changes in trend are more important than absolute numbers, and it will take a while to verify this one. If accurate and durable, fewer layoffs is a good thing, but it is not hiring. Might just be running out of people to lay off.
Optimists point for confirmation to the NFIB small business survey, whose overall index has risen four months running. However, it’s a hair weaker than a year ago and statistically unchanged since the post-pit summer of 2009. However, the employment sub-index is slightly in positive ground for the first time since 2007. Maybe it’s a turn, or maybe over-cut small biz has enough confidence in stability to staff an empty slot, but it’s no rocket. The sub-index of sales has weakened steadily since April.
One of the best overall indicators is Federal tax receipts, cutting through analytic fog and spin: Federal receipts last month were $13 billion ahead of last year. Ain’t nobody payin’ taxes on income they didn’t really get.
Inflation is a non-problem, CPI flat in November, and as the rest of the world slows, inflation is more likely to be a too-low problem than too high. Industrial production slipped .2% after a strong month. Wizards of forecasting think GDP will have grown 3.5% this month, and we’ll see. Feels more like a number than a sidewalk reality.
Europe. Mainstream media last week trumpeted Merkel’s great success in gaining agreement for pan-European fiscal enforcement, and pilloried David Cameron for his UK no-thanks. Now we know: bullied by Merkel in her pickelhaube and Kaiser Bill moustache, nasty little French poodle in her lap snapping at passersby, several of the others gave polite “Ja” without any agreement at all. European banks are imploding again. Desperate efforts at fiscal discipline to support sovereign bonds are undercutting economies and tax revenue, hurting European bonds by other means.
The fear-effect here: the Treasury this week auctioned masses of 10- and 30-year bonds, and bidders over-subscribed 3.5:1, two-thirds from overseas. The 10-year T-note today is 1.84%, last so low on October 1, unfortunately with no follow-through to mortgages stuck above 4.00%. That absence of mortgage buyers is yet another signal that financial markets here are still deeply impaired.
Lest European governments get all the credit for mangling the public interest, consider the newest adventure here, transcending dysfunction. The President took time out from his pre-campaign snit to demand an extension to the payroll tax cut, and even this free-spender insisted that new revenue would be found to “pay” for the cut. Predictably Republicans wanted to cut spending in alternate “payment.”
No serious person thinks the extension even if not paid for would do anything for the economy except to waste another couple of hundred billion bucks. However, the “pay for” mania no matter how done will convert the whole exercise into cutting a foot off of one end of a blanket and sewing it on the other end.
Except. None of the pay-fors propose replacing the revenue lost to Social Security, a high cost to pay for political posturing.
And except. I’m not sure that it will pass, but there has been bi-partisan support to pay for part of the payroll cut with a Fannie-Freddie mortgage surcharge, adding a tax on the weakest component of the US economy in the form of higher rates. Meanwhile, of course, the Fed’s “Twist” is trying to push down mortgage rates, and at any crack in economic optimism the Fed will deploy QE3 focused on mortgages.
Few people expect much from government, now, except two minority parties each content in its corner to glare at the other. Finding agreement only in the idiocy of a mortgage surcharge transcends black comedy. If we get some action out of the Ghost of Christmas Present this year, I hope it’s to awaken and embolden the political center.
Maybe, maybe… fingers crossed.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Capital Markets Update
By Louis S. Barnes Friday, December 9th, 2011
The newest European maneuvers have trigged a stock rally, but credit markets are not buying the deal. The small upward pressure on US yields today is preparatory to a big borrowing binge by the Treasury next week, not anything fundamental.
Through the fog of Europe, dominating and concealing everything, one pattern is clear: the US economy is doing better than forecast 90 days ago, and the rest of the world is in some stage of sinking.
The two surveyors of US consumer confidence have each reported November-December gains. New claims for unemployment insurance last month were the lowest since February, and the small-business org, NFIB, has also found the first up-turn in small-business hiring since 2008. The Fed’s Z-1 reported a couple-trillion-dollar drop in US household net worth in the 3rd quarter; however, all of it was attributable to stock market losses then, all of which have been recovered.
The perma-optimists say that emerging economies will carry the globe. Uh-huh. China’s 18-months of inflation-fighting has dampened prices, but also hosed down its economy. Brazil’s GDP grew 7.5% last year, but went negative in the 3rd quarter.
The European predicament has been a source of amusement while markets there and everywhere for two years have tried to anticipate whatever new system will follow euro-folly. As of last night, it is no longer funny.
Germany has no answer to anything except to force unsustainable austerity on the weak dozen of the 17 nations in the euro currency. In their frailty, they dare not object. Feckless France for 150 years has asserted power that it does not possess, now coat-tailing German dragoons. Beyond the currency zone lie another 10 nations together comprising the European Union, a fantastic bureaucratic boondoggle based in Brussels.
Today minus one, the UK.
Once applying force, Germany has never known when to stop. Germany and France have long envied the City of London, second only to New York as a financial center. Among the fiscal-union treaty changes jammed at the EU-27 last night, the UK would lose protection from EU regulations which would dismantle the City and reassemble it in Paris and Frankfurt. To UK PM David Cameron’s great credit, despite the risk to UK exports, half of which go to Europe, he told Merkel and Sarkozy to bugger off.
Financial markets have been wagering on euro-breakup since July, one Friday after another guessing the precipitating event. First we expected sovereign-debt default as a catalyst for collapse, but just enough aid has been provided to the weak to prevent it. In July began the greatest bank run of all time, transcending even post-Lehman here, and markets bet on a banking collapse as endgame. European banks have indeed collapsed, but the husks are held open by ECB funding alone (example: in November US money-market funds pulled 68% of their money from French banks), and the absurd notion that all sovereign debt will be repaid at face value and in euros.
German muscle will prevail until European economies are crushed by austerity, and tax revenue falls out from under budgets. That will take a while. Marking the absurdity of this blockheaded pursuit: several sources report authorities in Ireland, Greece, and others inquiring about capacity to print new local-currency banknotes. Every investment house is handicapping the values of local currencies post-breakup. Emails circulate discussion of the lex monetae rules governing who-owes-what after currency change.
There is nothing holding Europe together except a political superstructure which will be thrown from power when the unified Europe project fails. Thus no matter how transparent the folly and failure, the harder that class tries to preserve the project.
The lesson for us, far more powerful than caution against financial profligacy: the more your political structure detaches from economic reality, the greater the danger. That hazard is masked here, now, by European distress. Cash flows to us for safety, keeping interest rates low, and global weakness inhibits inflation. We’ll take that as long as possible.
“Improvement” in confidence is relative.
The newest European maneuvers have trigged a stock rally, but credit markets are not buying the deal. The small upward pressure on US yields today is preparatory to a big borrowing binge by the Treasury next week, not anything fundamental.
Through the fog of Europe, dominating and concealing everything, one pattern is clear: the US economy is doing better than forecast 90 days ago, and the rest of the world is in some stage of sinking.
The two surveyors of US consumer confidence have each reported November-December gains. New claims for unemployment insurance last month were the lowest since February, and the small-business org, NFIB, has also found the first up-turn in small-business hiring since 2008. The Fed’s Z-1 reported a couple-trillion-dollar drop in US household net worth in the 3rd quarter; however, all of it was attributable to stock market losses then, all of which have been recovered.
The perma-optimists say that emerging economies will carry the globe. Uh-huh. China’s 18-months of inflation-fighting has dampened prices, but also hosed down its economy. Brazil’s GDP grew 7.5% last year, but went negative in the 3rd quarter.
The European predicament has been a source of amusement while markets there and everywhere for two years have tried to anticipate whatever new system will follow euro-folly. As of last night, it is no longer funny.
Germany has no answer to anything except to force unsustainable austerity on the weak dozen of the 17 nations in the euro currency. In their frailty, they dare not object. Feckless France for 150 years has asserted power that it does not possess, now coat-tailing German dragoons. Beyond the currency zone lie another 10 nations together comprising the European Union, a fantastic bureaucratic boondoggle based in Brussels.
Today minus one, the UK.
Once applying force, Germany has never known when to stop. Germany and France have long envied the City of London, second only to New York as a financial center. Among the fiscal-union treaty changes jammed at the EU-27 last night, the UK would lose protection from EU regulations which would dismantle the City and reassemble it in Paris and Frankfurt. To UK PM David Cameron’s great credit, despite the risk to UK exports, half of which go to Europe, he told Merkel and Sarkozy to bugger off.
Financial markets have been wagering on euro-breakup since July, one Friday after another guessing the precipitating event. First we expected sovereign-debt default as a catalyst for collapse, but just enough aid has been provided to the weak to prevent it. In July began the greatest bank run of all time, transcending even post-Lehman here, and markets bet on a banking collapse as endgame. European banks have indeed collapsed, but the husks are held open by ECB funding alone (example: in November US money-market funds pulled 68% of their money from French banks), and the absurd notion that all sovereign debt will be repaid at face value and in euros.
German muscle will prevail until European economies are crushed by austerity, and tax revenue falls out from under budgets. That will take a while. Marking the absurdity of this blockheaded pursuit: several sources report authorities in Ireland, Greece, and others inquiring about capacity to print new local-currency banknotes. Every investment house is handicapping the values of local currencies post-breakup. Emails circulate discussion of the lex monetae rules governing who-owes-what after currency change.
There is nothing holding Europe together except a political superstructure which will be thrown from power when the unified Europe project fails. Thus no matter how transparent the folly and failure, the harder that class tries to preserve the project.
The lesson for us, far more powerful than caution against financial profligacy: the more your political structure detaches from economic reality, the greater the danger. That hazard is masked here, now, by European distress. Cash flows to us for safety, keeping interest rates low, and global weakness inhibits inflation. We’ll take that as long as possible.
“Improvement” in confidence is relative.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Capital Markets Update
By Lou Barnes Friday, December 2, 2011
Everybody struggles now to find guideposts in the thicket of new economic information. Two old ideas may help. First, the time-sense of humanity is more calibrated to getting the bear out of the cave than musing about why bears like caves. Second, a version of frog-in-hot-water: we tend not to notice the gradual onset of lunacy, grasping the insanity only in retrospect.
US data are pretty good — relative to fears of new recession. November payrolls gained 120,000 jobs, and inclusive of all revisions added that many to prior months. If markets had any idea in September that payrolls had jumped by 210,000, double the original announcement, we would not have had that mortgage refinance party.
Reality break: the Treasury borrows and spends about $120 billion each month, and for that stimulus we get 120,000 jobs. Instead, why not just pay each of these people a million bucks and let them stay home? Europe is struggling with austerity, not us. Yet.
Markets liked the rise in the November ISM manufacturing index from 50.8 to 52.7, “50″ a breakeven economy. A major part of that improvement is coming from much better sales of cars, at a 13.6 million annual pace in November, way up from the barely 9 million in 2009.
Retro-perspective: we junk about 14 million cars each year. They wear out, unlike houses. Thus we are just now touching replacement-rate sales. Credit is restored for car buyers, unlike houses, which require rather larger loans and are harder to repossess (state Attorneys General have discovered that it’s cheap to buy votes by stopping foreclosures). Oh-by-the-way, the ISM in China fell to 49, and Europe to 46.
The strength in the stock market is a great thing; Dow 12,000 in new statements will reassure households. Fine, disciplined money-managers (Brad Bickham and Gary Beels in town), as opposed to the drunks on CNBC, point to solid corporate earnings miles above the return on bonds. Some stocks pay dividends beating bond yields.
Fluff, huff and puff… Wednesday’s 500-point up-day was the direct result of global central banks’ rescue of European banks. A run began on European banks 18 months ago, and intensified in July, including huge dollar deposits fleeing home, out of Europe for safety. The ECB can replace euros running, but needed other central banks to replenish dollars. The good-news intervention that caught so many short stocks was actually confirmation of very bad news.
Everyone is exhausted with Euro-soap and its fantastic display of self-deception, but it is more important than any other economic development. The next can-kick is scheduled for December 9, this time fiscal discipline to be enforced by surrender of sovereign budget authority to European Union bureaucrats in Brussels. Once that discipline is established, the IMF and ECB are supposed to ride to the rescue. Joined presumably by the Mounties, Mighty Mouse, and Batman.
Better to kick an anvil than this can. The central purpose of any parliament since the Magna Carta, since Rome, is the power of the purse. In the best lunacy check of the week, Nicolas Sarkozy: “It is not by going down the path of more supranationality that Europe will be re-launched.” Aha. France refuses external fiscal discipline not merely for its immense pride, but because its own situation is so dire that it cannot meet the requirements of the existing treaty. If France refuses, who would accept?
Germany’s unemployment has fallen to a two-decade low 5.5%. Spain’s is 22%. There is no rational basis for these nations to bolt themsleves to a common currency. One needs a much stronger one, and the painful lesson of the cost of beggar-thy-neighbor export mania, and the other desperately needs to devalue to revive exports.
The greatest hazard lies in continuing this charade. The most helpful and hopeful line of the week came from Jurgen Hoffman, finance director at Volkswagen Autoeuropa (from FT): “The overall impact [of leaving the euro] would not be so negative for our company.” The primary impediment to ending the euro fantasy now seems to be politicians trying to preserve themselves; the commercial world is more than ready.
Everybody struggles now to find guideposts in the thicket of new economic information. Two old ideas may help. First, the time-sense of humanity is more calibrated to getting the bear out of the cave than musing about why bears like caves. Second, a version of frog-in-hot-water: we tend not to notice the gradual onset of lunacy, grasping the insanity only in retrospect.
US data are pretty good — relative to fears of new recession. November payrolls gained 120,000 jobs, and inclusive of all revisions added that many to prior months. If markets had any idea in September that payrolls had jumped by 210,000, double the original announcement, we would not have had that mortgage refinance party.
Reality break: the Treasury borrows and spends about $120 billion each month, and for that stimulus we get 120,000 jobs. Instead, why not just pay each of these people a million bucks and let them stay home? Europe is struggling with austerity, not us. Yet.
Markets liked the rise in the November ISM manufacturing index from 50.8 to 52.7, “50″ a breakeven economy. A major part of that improvement is coming from much better sales of cars, at a 13.6 million annual pace in November, way up from the barely 9 million in 2009.
Retro-perspective: we junk about 14 million cars each year. They wear out, unlike houses. Thus we are just now touching replacement-rate sales. Credit is restored for car buyers, unlike houses, which require rather larger loans and are harder to repossess (state Attorneys General have discovered that it’s cheap to buy votes by stopping foreclosures). Oh-by-the-way, the ISM in China fell to 49, and Europe to 46.
The strength in the stock market is a great thing; Dow 12,000 in new statements will reassure households. Fine, disciplined money-managers (Brad Bickham and Gary Beels in town), as opposed to the drunks on CNBC, point to solid corporate earnings miles above the return on bonds. Some stocks pay dividends beating bond yields.
Fluff, huff and puff… Wednesday’s 500-point up-day was the direct result of global central banks’ rescue of European banks. A run began on European banks 18 months ago, and intensified in July, including huge dollar deposits fleeing home, out of Europe for safety. The ECB can replace euros running, but needed other central banks to replenish dollars. The good-news intervention that caught so many short stocks was actually confirmation of very bad news.
Everyone is exhausted with Euro-soap and its fantastic display of self-deception, but it is more important than any other economic development. The next can-kick is scheduled for December 9, this time fiscal discipline to be enforced by surrender of sovereign budget authority to European Union bureaucrats in Brussels. Once that discipline is established, the IMF and ECB are supposed to ride to the rescue. Joined presumably by the Mounties, Mighty Mouse, and Batman.
Better to kick an anvil than this can. The central purpose of any parliament since the Magna Carta, since Rome, is the power of the purse. In the best lunacy check of the week, Nicolas Sarkozy: “It is not by going down the path of more supranationality that Europe will be re-launched.” Aha. France refuses external fiscal discipline not merely for its immense pride, but because its own situation is so dire that it cannot meet the requirements of the existing treaty. If France refuses, who would accept?
Germany’s unemployment has fallen to a two-decade low 5.5%. Spain’s is 22%. There is no rational basis for these nations to bolt themsleves to a common currency. One needs a much stronger one, and the painful lesson of the cost of beggar-thy-neighbor export mania, and the other desperately needs to devalue to revive exports.
The greatest hazard lies in continuing this charade. The most helpful and hopeful line of the week came from Jurgen Hoffman, finance director at Volkswagen Autoeuropa (from FT): “The overall impact [of leaving the euro] would not be so negative for our company.” The primary impediment to ending the euro fantasy now seems to be politicians trying to preserve themselves; the commercial world is more than ready.
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